Some teams are fine. Some definitely are not fine. As we hit the mid‑season mark, it’s clear every side still has one glaring gap at the very very least. So what I have done here is Statrise the January Transfer Window to see how using the numbers and the eye test what each team is probably on the hunt for this winter. Let’s get stuck into the one position each Premier League club should target in January, justified with up‑to‑date 2025/26 stats.
Arsenal — Proven No. 9 (Striker)
Arsenal sit top of the league with one of the best attacking profiles in the Premier League,they lead the league in xG with 27.81 expected goals and have 30 goals scored so far, showing they create loads.
Their current focal striker, Gyökeres, has just 3 league goals to date, and his scoring seems weighted toward lesser opponents, not elite defences. This matches up with his return in Portugal with only 1 open play goal last season versus Braga, Porto & Benfica.
Signed to fill the striker void has largely failed to turn that chance volume into a proportional goal return, with his scoring skewed toward lesser opposition and only a handful of goals to his name. When you pair elite chance creation with a finishing return that lags where it should be, it’s not a tactical fluke, it’s a problem. For a side hotly chasing silverware and title points, January is the time to consider a short‑term, proven goalscorer to convert those clear opportunities in big games.
Needs: A finisher ideally a seasoned centre‑forward on short loan to convert Arsenal’s great chance volume into consistent goals.
Manchester City — Midfielder (Rodri Cover/Replacement)
City alongside their Manchester Rivals lead the league for big chances created (42), showing elite attacking control, but Rodri’s injury absences correlate with dips in defensive stability and balance. Without a reliable midfield anchor, their xG advantage hasn’t always translated into dominance.
When Rodri is unavailable as has happened with his patchy injury record that dominance doesn’t always translate into stability or defensive balance. City’s midfield becomes more porous, leading to a measurable dip in control over the pivot. Adding a Rodri–esque midfielder in January someone with positional discipline, ball recovery stats and passing range would give Pep Guardiola more tactical flexibility and prevent a drop in defensive protection when rotating the spine of the team.
Needs: A compact, high‑IQ midfielder who can plug in seamlessly and share the load with Rodri someone who can protect the back line and initiate attacks.
Aston Villa — Forward (Support Striker)
Villa are creating plenty of opportunities (98 chances created off top six sides) and have one of the best xG figures outside the Big Six, but they aren’t converting enough into goals relative to their chance volume. Aston Villa’s expected goals (~17.49 xG) and general attacking output are excellent for a non‑Big Six side.
But Watkins hasn’t been as prolific, and the lack of a consistent secondary goal threat stands out when you compare their chance creation to final execution especially against well‑organised defences. The numbers suggest this isn’t a lack of opportunity, it’s a lack of finishing depth across forward lines. Villa’s January window should be about supplementing, not replacing a striker who can convert chances when Watkins isn’t firing.
Needs: A secondary forward who can take pressure off Watkins and turn creativity into consistent goals.
Chelsea — Goalkeeper
Chelsea underpin strong numbers: 3rd in goals scored and 3rd fewest conceded (25 goals conceded so far this season), but Sanchez has three errors leading directly to goals, among the most in the league
Chelsea are scoring well (25 goals, ~25.15 xG) and defensively respectable, yet the keeper position is a weak link. Sanchez has been prone to mistakes that lead directly to goals costly errors that skew conceded metrics despite decent team numbers.
Even with a solid centre‑back unit, their current goalkeeper has been prone to mistakes leading directly to goals something the raw goals‑conceded figure masks. Forward momentum is moot if your keeper isn’t turning shots into saves consistently. A more reliable keeper with strong shot and big‑chance stopping metrics would not only bolster the defence statistically, but also psychologically tighten Chelsea’s back line.
Needs: A calm, experienced goalkeeper who can make tough saves and organize a back line that’s otherwise solid.
Crystal Palace — Central Midfielder
Palace sit mid‑table but their midfield lacks connection their own chance creation lags teams above and below them alike (around 89 chances created for the season).
Palace conceded 26 goals and are mid‑table, largely because their midfield doesn’t connect defence to attack. Doucouré is decent, but there’s a creativity and control vacuum otherwise. Bolstering the centre with a box‑to‑box midfielder would improve both ball progression and stability
Needs: A true central midfielder who can help progress play, maintain possession under pressure and link defence to attack.
Manchester United — Defensive Midfielder
United sit near the top for xG (30.60) and total chances created but concede too freely when Casemiro isn’t on. United’s expected goals are among the best in the division, a sign that their offense can score with quality.
But their defensive numbers particularly in transition and late in games lag behind. Most of their
conceded goals occur when their defensive shielding disappears after substitutions, pointing squarely at a missing midfield anchor. The data shows United’s defence worsens without strong play from deep. January should be about bringing in a midfielder who can win duels, cover ground and absorb transitional pressure.
The defensive midfield area is the obvious weak point where goals against spike late in games.They were linked with Baleba/Anderson in summer for a mobile, ball‑recovering mid and should reignite those pursuit
Needs: A ball‑winning/defensive midfielder to cover transitions and help stabilize late match scenarios.
Liverpool —Centre Back
Liverpool only conceded around 24 expected goals, good but not elite considering their firepower but their backline is stretched with the ageing Virgil and Konate injury issues. Pool still generate strong offensive numbers and shots, but their defence underperforms relative to past standards. They’re still among the most prolific chance creators (196 chances created) but they do let the opposition get quality attempts.
Age, injuries and a lack of depth at the heart of defence have shown in the numbers, Liverpool conceded more than expected after threatening high up the pitch, aka in transition so without fresh reinforcements they risk slipping further as the season progresses. January is the window to bring in a prime age dominant centre back who will command aerial duels and minimise the big chances conceded.
Needs: Central defender to shore up a backline giving up too many high quality chances.
Sunderland — Striker
Sunderland’s ascent has been one of the season’s stories but goal production remains modest. Sunderland’s xG suggests they should have significantly fewer goals than they actually scored a sign they’re not generating enough quality chances. Their expected goals and real goals scored lag behind similarly positioned rivals, highlighting an over‑reliance on tactical overachievement rather than pure offensive threat.
With several starters going to AFCON, the lack of depth up front will tilt from minor concern to a points risk. Adding a proven goalscorer who fits their system could unlock consistently better output when their wide creators return.
Needs: A goal‑scoring centre forward to turn limited chances into meaningful points.
Everton — Striker
Everton’s creativity numbers have improved (Grealish leads chances created) but their goalscoring remains weak compared to the chances they make. Everton have improved their overall creativity metrics (e.g., Grealish remains one of the league’s best chance creators), but that hasn’t consistently translated into goals.
Beto and Barry have been serviceable, but the numbers show they aren’t finishing enough of those chances. Signing a recognised goal candidate in January would turn decent xG figures into match‑winning returns, strengthening Everton’s push toward midtable.
Needs: A clinical striker to turn creativity into goals and relieve pressure on midfield creators.
Brighton — Goalkeeper
Brighton are comfortable mid‑table in both goals scored and conceded, but why settle for average? Brighton sit comfortably mid‑table neither great nor terrible with goals for and against both roughly balanced. A better shot‑stopper would improve points from tight games and help defend a back line that faces plenty of attempts.
But this equilibrium masks a deeper issue: they concede enough shots that they’re on the slide in high–leverage situations, and converting that into points gains requires a goalkeeper who can meaningfully influence results. A keep who saves a few extra shots or big chances each match turns draws into wins and narrow losses into draws.
Needs: A keeper upgrade to make difference‑saving stops.
Tottenham Hotspur — Playmaker
Spurs’ midfield creative numbers are underwhelming without Maddison and Kulusevski their chances created rate is well below the league’s best.
Tottenham’s chance creation when healthy doesn’t match their forward talent; their midfield is not producing enough progression or linkage play. The raw chances created (and progressive pass numbers) underperform compared to teams of similar quality.
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January should be about adding an attacking creator who unlocks opposing shape and bridges midfield to attack making their potent wingers more lethal.
Needs: A creative playmaker who can break defensive lines and link up attack with flair
Newcastle United — Central Midfielder
Newcastle’s attack can be explosive; they rank mid‑to‑high in chances created but their midfield often fails to consistently progress possession or shield defence. Newcastle are solid but not creating conveyor‑belt chances like the elite, they need someone to boost tempo and link up attackers like Woltemade, Elanga and Gordon into more consistent opportunities. #
Newcastle boast explosive wing options and plenty of wide weapons, but their midfield build‑up can stagnate. Bruno and Tonali are capable, but consistency is missing and more control in midfield would help unlock attacks faster and save legs for the big run‑in.Their midfield isn’t generating enough progressive passes.
Needs: A box‑to‑box midfielder who can pull the team up the pitch.
Bournemouth — Centre Back
Bournemouth have been solid in attack but concede too many quality chances and while their xGA isn’t the worst, their defence isn’t consistently limiting big chances. Bournemouth have respectable scoring with Semenyo and Evanilson, but the backline has leaked too many goals, conceding 24+ and trending in the wrong direction.
Bournemouth have a decent expected goals figure (~24.07 xG) and convert chances, but there’s a leak in their defence: they concede several quality chances, reflected in their goals conceded metrics.
January is the time to bring in a dominant centre back capable of reducing clear scoring opportunities for opponents and helping Bournemouth climb the table.
Needs: A physical centre back to improve defensive solidity.
Fulham — Creative Midfielder
Fulham’s xG is among the lowest in the league, reflecting their struggle to create sustained bodies of high‑quality chances.
Fulham’s attacking numbers including goals scored and xG are among the lowest in the league, showing they simply don’t generate enough clear opportunities.Their midfield lacks creators with real progression numbers. A dynamic central creator would unlock Iwobi and others into more consistent danger areas.
Needs: A central midfielder with creativity someone Periera‑like who allows Iwobi & Wilson to play higher up the pitch.
Brentford — Centre Back
Brentford’s attack is powered by Thiago (one of the league’s top scorers), but they frequently concede medium‑to‑high quality chances, leaving them vulnerable despite good finishing.
Thiago being one of the league’s leading scorers is no small feat for a non‑Big Six player yet Brentford concede too many chances and goals, often undoing the attacking value. Their defensive metrics trend poorly without a proper organizing centre back.
Needs: A reliable centre back to help reduce goal‑conceding volume.
Nottingham Forest — Striker
Forest’s total goals and xG suggest they’re underperforming up front. Their conversion rate and attacking threat need a clinical finisher. Chris Wood is now over the hill, Forest sit in a position where they don’t create enough chances, and their front line doesn’t capitalise consistently.
A centre forward who can reliably finish 6–10 goals from limited opportunity is a perfect January target for survival or push toward safety, they don’t create enough clear, high‑quality chances, and Wood is no longer a consistent threat at this level.
Needs: A No. 9 who can finish chances more regularly.
Leeds United — Striker Support
Leeds’ goals conceded and creation stats show they don’t generate enough returns from chances, particularly behind DCL they need more firepower. Leeds’ goals scored trail what their xG suggests they should be scoring, indicating a lack of clinical finishers beyond their lone striker.
Adding another forward who can capitalize on chances would help turn competitive matches into points rather than narrow losses.
Needs: Another goal threat up front to help share scoring responsibility.
West Ham — Goalkeeper
West Ham’s xGA is on the higher end (21.29 xGA), indicating they allow decent chances that become goals. A stable keeper can turn “average defence” into value points on tight days.
West Ham have conceded more than 25 goals so far one of the heavier defensive loads in the league. West Ham’s defensive expected goals allowed and goal concession trends suggest they’ve been weaker than their table position implies. Bringing in a stable keeper who reduces expected goals conceded through better shot‑stop numbers could materially improve their fight against the drop.
Needs: A calm, reliable keeper to reduce goals conceded.
Burnley & Wolves — Championship Rebuild
Both teams sit bottom of xGA and league tables, conceding the most expected goals and scoring the least. Rebuilding the squad and strategy for Championship survival rather than a stopgap signing is the clear priority.
Burnley sit bottom of the expected goals allowed table (32.52 xGA) and also score among the lowest.January band‑aids won’t fix systemic imbalance. A structural rebuild starting with defence and spine players should be priority for survival and beyond.
Wolves are 20th with a glaring negative goal differential and one of the worst xGA profiles. Relegation danger looms. January needs big‑picture squad reinforcement, not just one player.
Needs: Full restructuring, not just one signing.
Bottom Line
Sometimes January signings justify themselves immediately. Sometimes they don’t. This season, the gaps are clearly visible in the numbers from deficiencies in midfield creativity to the simplicity of a lack of proven strikers. If clubs act wisely, the top half of this table could look very different by May.
This isn’t about fluff it’s 2025/26 Premier League data talking. From goals vs. xG to big chances and creative outputs, the January window presents massive opportunities for teams to fix glaring weaknesses.
If a side doesn’t act, the numbers will eat them.
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