Listen up, drafters. We’re deep into March 2026, with around 210-240 matches played in the 2025/26 Premier League season, and the data paints a crystal-clear picture: the league has gone more direct, more pragmatic, more Big Sam and a hell of a lot more set-piece reliant than the possession-heavy years we just left behind were looking at you Platinum Stoke or the artist formerly known as Arsenal Football Club. Average passes per game sit at 873.3 (up from an early-season low of 849.1 after 50 games, but still well below last season’s 893.4 and the recent peaks around 941). Long balls (32m+) are holding steady at ~99.6 per game, up from 93.4 last term. Sequences are quicker and shorter, direct speed is up for many sides, and build-ups from the back? They’re getting punished hard by pressing that’s forced teams to bypass the midfield more often. Sorry Kinsky but your day out in Europe or every Sanchez at Chelsea mistake are the highlights here.
At StatrDraft, our scoring rewards the full spectrum, goals, assists, key passes, sure, but also tackles, interceptions, clearances, recoveries, and clean sheets. This tactical pivot is inflating points for exactly the players who thrive in this vertical, transitional, aerial battle. Let’s dive into the numbers and what it means for your squad.
Passing Trends: Fewer Total Passes, More Long Ones Sticking Around
Early doors, games averaged just 849.1 passes, the lowest since 2010/11. By now, it’s climbed to 873.3, but that’s still the lowest full-season trajectory since 2012/13 (868.7). The extra passes lately? Mostly shorter, safer ones in the middle third as teams adjust.
Long balls haven’t budged much: 99.7 early, now 99.6 per game but that’s still a solid jump from last season’s 93.4. Teams like Brentford lead with 59.10 long balls per match, followed by sides like Burnley (58.76), Wolves (56.57), and Bournemouth (53.96). Even top teams are in on it: Arsenal at ~45.77 per match, Aston Villa ~44.62. City and the possession purists are still lower, but the league-wide trend is clear – bypass the press, go direct. We’re moving away from Pep’s Possesion and Klopps Gegenpress to Jose’s Athletics and unfortunately Arteta’s Stoke Premium style.
Long throws into the box have exploded: from 1.52 per game last season to over 3.44 now (some reports push it higher in spots), more than double any prior decade-high. Set-piece goals? Around 25% of total output early, with corners and throws driving huge chunks Arsenal alone racked up massive corner tallies, and league-wide headed goals are on pace for records. Remember the days when Delap was the outlier.
Pressing Stats: Intensity Adapts, High Turnovers Dip Then Stabilise
High turnovers (winning it in the final 40m) has massively dropped off to 11.5 per game early, a 10-season low, as teams booted long to escape the press. Now they’re recovering somewhat (reports suggest back toward 13+ in spots), but still below last season’s 14.6. Shot-ending efficiency from them dipped too (from 17% a couple years back to ~14.9-16%).
PPDA (passes per defensive action) varies wildly: some aggressive sides stay low (Brighton leading possessions won in final third at 4.9 per 90), while others like Man City have seen theirs rise to 14.5 – less intense high press, more mid-block organisation. The result? Fewer sustained build-ups, more scraps, and duels everywhere. In summary Brighton are still a pressing machine, so play over them, while Man City are sitting back and planning their press more through the midfield than they have in years gone past, the data backs the eye test and the eye test backs the data, and damn that’s always nice.
How the Game Has Changed: Vertical, Aerial, Set-Piece Heavy
It’s not anti-football; it’s evolved pragmatism. Maybe it’s overly pragmatic, some teams are bordering on NFL styling their attacks to force set pieces. Pressing forces long balls from keepers (more than 51%+ long goal kicks), target men link play, full-backs underlap for switches. Fast breaks slow a touch as mid-blocks organise, but direct speed rises overall. Set pieces decide games 25-30% of goals from dead balls in stretches, long throws turning into shots at ~24% rate and goals at 2.4%. Proper No.9s and aerial threats are back; inverted wingers aren’t the only route anymore. In other terms look at the increase of goals for players like Tiago and the drop off for Salah, yes there is more to both players stories, but for the purpose of the example, you catch my drift.
Fantasy Implications in StatrDraft: Workhorses and Aerial Threats Cash In
Our system loves this meta. Glamour stats still pay, but the dirty work, ball recoveries, tackles in transition, clearances from long balls – is exploding. Set-piece involvements (whipped deliveries, headers) are money.
Key picks right now:
- Ball-winning mids and defenders: With high turnovers climbing back and long balls forcing duels, press monsters and recovery kings (think Rodri-style No.6s, aggressive FBs/CBs) rack up interceptions, tackles, recoveries. Teams pressing hard see their backlines clear more – huge for points.
- Direct creators: Fewer total passes, but progressive/key ones matter more. Mids who spot long switches or early balls in vertical teams thrive – higher ceiling than pure possession tickers who complete 90 safe passes but do zilch else.
- Target men & set-piece kings: Long balls + long throws + set-piece reliance = headers galore. Strikers winning aerials, mids whipping corners/free-kicks – they’re printing points. No more “only inverted creators score” dominance.
- Ditch pure tiki-taka mids: The guy who racks passes but skips defensive work? Lower floor this year. All-rounders who press + create? Differentials gold.
The league’s gone cyclical – back to English roots with modern intensity. Direct chaos rewards the grafters, the launchers, the aerial winners. In StatrDraft, that’s where the edge lives.
Who’s your target in the run-in to exploit this? Hit the comments – we’re all about the data edge.
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