Just like that, we hit the part of the season where the game weeks are numbered in their 30s. Blank weeks, double game weeks, matches in hand, European and FA cup distractions for coaches, injuries, summer transfer announcements…it’s a hell of a time to try and stay on top of the tactics of running a decent draft squad. We can’t tell you who the stars of the championship rounds will be this season, nor can we conclusively say anything really. Like all our predictions, we take a look at the numbers and then enjoy watching our projections fall apart due to circumstance. This season differs from the past few, however, in that while the top spot seems to be beyond reach of anyone that isn’t Liverpool, literally any other club in the top half of the table could conceivably reach European competition next year. With the differential wind blowing the right way, there many be as many as 6 spots up for grabs, and the margins are really tight this year with just 10 points between City(4th) and Brentford (11th) at time of writing. Over this series of articles, we’ll be taking a look at what’s likely for those in the mix. First up:
AFC Bournemouth (10th place – form LLDLL)
Oh dear oh dear, whatever has happened the cherries? A few weeks ago there was real buzz around the possibility of a European slot off the back of an outstanding December and January. The recent form though has featured defeats to Brentford, Brighton, Wolves and even Ipswich. Bournemouth fans must, if they’re objective, be getting worried. With the exception of Brighton, all those losses are to lower-tier teams, making the prospect of regaining lost ground against better clubs even more daunting. A wave of key midfielders picking up injuries hasn’t helped, with Ryan Christie, Marcus Tavernier and Justin Kluivert now all sporting the dreaded red flag. Most of Bournemouth’s goal-creating firepower has come from those three all season so all will be missed at a crucial juncture. Combine that with some minor distractions for the superb Milos Kerkez and it doesn’t look like there’s any reason to believe in a significant improvement any time soon.
So what’s on the menu for the last 8 weeks of Bournemouth’s campaign? Given current form, there isn’t a reliably easy fixture in the whole 8 weeks. Lots of mid-table games and then a living nightmare from weeks 34 to 37 with Arsenal followed by Villa followed by City. Their final game is against Leicester, which really does look like a consolation closer for the fans. Fantasy coach advice? Watch the injury table, because the fixture listings won’t help. Strengthened by a healthy squad, Bournemouth’s midfield assets are relatively fixture-proof. Tavernier and Kluivert are bankable but that’s about it until the defence get their act together and return value from Hujisen and Kerkez. Sadly for Bournemouth this year, it’s probably going to be a fight for top half rather than Europe from here on in.
Arsenal (2nd place – form LLDWW)
Sitting very pretty indeed in 2nd place with a 4-point buffer between them and Forest, our very favourite head coach here at Statr – the glorious(dare I say majestic?) Mikel Arteta has once again managed to fulfil his mediocre destiny. This year Arsenal will most likely manage to finish runner-up to Liverpool instead of City showing amazing strategic flexibility. So what went wrong? Well, not a whole pile actually. Liverpool have just been that far ahead of everyone else this season. There’s a fairly easy-to-draw line between the absence of Bukayo Saka for several weeks, a lack of firepower from the right wing, no real target man out front and a sudden jolt into drawing games instead of winning them. Liverpool have won 22 and drawn 7, and while Arsenal have only lost two games more than them, they’ve also drawn 10, more than any other team in the top half. Seventeen wins from thirty games simply isn’t a win ration sufficient to win a premier league, and with over-reliance on second-tier strikers like Havertz, Jesus and Sterling, Arsenal absolutely must go shopping for serious goalscoring talent in the summer. Or a new manager.
What about fantasy assets, I hear you ask. Saliba and Magalhaes are still the only double defence anyone should ever consider, and Saka’s return should be an immediate jerking knee for any coach of any format. Beyond that though, it’s thin enough on the ground.
Fixtures still to come are mixed. The next three weeks should be handy enough (Everton, Brentford and Ipswich) before a blank in week 34. The last four weeks are much messier though, with a trip to Anfield to be dealt with, as well as a visit from Newcastle. And being Arsenal, they’ll probably drop 2 points in at least two of the games they should be winning. Europe certain. Second place, less so.
Chelsea (6th place – form LLWWL)
They’ve won three of their last five games, and that’s good. Sadly, they’ve also won three of their last eight, and they’re caught right in the high-pressure zone right now, just one win from third and one bad week from 8th. Like Forest, City and Arsenal before them, Chelsea were one of the teams that at one stage popped their head up for everyone to wonder “hey maybe Liverpool could be caught?” before dying off like all the others. It’s still just not a stable, consistent squad, with the Palmer-Jackson axis now just returning from injury. That said, they’re never an opposing team that any can take for granted. Tonight’s game against a thoroughly hobbled Spurs should give them the 3 points to catch City and Newcastle. It’s a fairly lovely 4 weeks after that, comprising Brentford, Fulham, Ipswich and Everton who should all – on paper – be cannon fodder for mandem FC. Then it gets a little spicier. Liverpool (oh dear) , Newcastle (a game that may very well determine European chances for both teams), Manchester United (meh) and finally Forest (wuh-oh) on the last day. If you’re picking up Chelsea players, do it now and be ready to discard when the time comes. But who to pick up? Well, Palmer and Jackson are both due back, and both amplify each other’s value. This also reads as time to drop Pedro Neto, if for some reason you hadn’t already. Don’t overlook Enzo Fernandez, who has become a fairly bankable points scorer in the past few weeks even without his go-to attack force in front of him.
Will they make Europe? Well absolutely, if we can see the winter 2024 Chelsea with all guns blazing and no other competitions to distract them. That last four weeks though, that should give pause, as Chelsea really haven’t performed against strong competition since February. A likely, but certainly not foregone conclusion.
Jimi Kavanagh, April 2025
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