Three full game weeks remain in the Premier League season for 2025/26. There’s a good possibility that the outright champions, the last relegation spot, and multiple Champions League qualification slots will still be up for grabs as we go into the dying minutes of the campaign. This week we’re taking a look at the ever-confusing scenarios for Champions League qualification. First things first : just how many spots are there, and who can grab one?
In simple terms, the top 5 clubs should qualify for the Champions League, the sixth place team get the Europa League, and seventh place gets the Europa Conference League. Simple, right? Well, actually, no. The complication this season is that Aston Villa are still in the running to win this season’s Europa, which would mean their Champions League spot (assuming they get one) moves down to sixth place. How likely are Emery’s men to win the cup? well, he wins it more than any other manager, and despite being 2-0 down on aggregate to Forest in the semis, they’re still just two good games away from their first European trophy since 1982’s European Cup win.
In other words, if Villa win their Cup and finish exactly fifth, suddenly the prospects of long distance away games next season are much brighter for Bournemouth, Brentford and Brighton. There’s a catch, however – if Villa overtake Liverpool and finish fourth, even if they take the Europa, their slot doesn’t transfer down. This is particularly important for the last day of the season for reasons we’ll cover further down. Chelsea and Fulham are technically in the running too, but bad results this week seem on-brand for teams finishing the season with a whimper rather than a bang, so they’re not in the spotlight this week. First up: the champs.
LIVERPOOL
It feels like a “just keep hanging on” final act of the season for Liverpool, hampered by a recent 3-2 defeat to their most bitter rivals. Arne Slot remains embattled, City and Arsenal are out of sight, and following said defeat to the red devils, Liverpool find themselves in fourth, level on points with fifth, and still not mathematically safe from any of the B trio chasing fifth. While it’s technically possible that Liverpool could finish as low as ninth, it’s pretty likely they’ll be ok for a spot in the Champions League this year.
Remaining games:
- Home to Chelsea Likely Win
- Away to Villa Possible Win
- Home to Brentford Possible Win
Chelsea currently provide about as much opposition as a wet piece of kitchen roll (as I write this, they’ve just gone three down to Forest at Stamford Bridge). The Villa game will be massive for both sides, however it’s three days before that Europa final, which – if Villa need to make some hard squad decisions at the time – may tip things in Liverpool’s favour. Home to Brentford may come with a twist this year, but more on that later.
Projected points from the above : 5-9
Projected finishing points : 63-67
ASTON VILLA
- Away to Burnley Likely Win
- Home to Liverpool Possible Win
- Away to City Likely Loss
Burnley have checked out of the campaign for the season and are currently as safe a three point win as Villa will see. On the other hand, the juggernaut that is Pep will be going all out to roll over them in the final fixture of the season, with – presumably – the championship itself still to be won or lost. There are two Villas for the next 4 weeks : Europa champions laughing their way to a guaranteed spot, and overstretched squad issues Villa without the bodies to pull off fifth. It all comes down to that Liverpool game really.
Projected points from the above : 3-6
Projected finishing points: 61-64
BOURNEMOUTH
- Away to Fulham Possible Win
- Home to City Likely Loss
- Away to Forest Possible Win
On paper, Bournemouth have all the form right now, with no Premier League defeats since January, and even that was to pre-bottle Arsenal. Fulham aren’t wrapped in glory lately, and it’s entirely conceivable Forest could be celebrating both European glory and avoiding relegation by then, but the problem is that City thing in the middle again.
Projected points from the above : 3-6
Projected finishing points: 55-58
BRENTFORD
Brentford had a long spell without a win until this week, but their remaining fixtures are away to City, away to Liverpool, and at home to Palace. If it’s anything more than 3 from those it’ll be a miracle.
- Away to City Likely Loss
- Home to Crystal Palace Possible Win
- Away to Liverpool Likely Loss
That weird situation we alluded to earlier on? Consider the following insane scenario: the last day of the season rolls around. Liverpool and Villa are level on points in 4th and 5th respectively. Brighton and Bournemouth have fallen off. Villa have won the Europa. In this scenario. Brentford would need Liverpool to do better than Villa on the last day…meaning that losing against Liverpool may be enough to secure a champions league spot by keeping Villa fifth rather than fourth, whereas Brentford winning their game against Liverpool would risk putting Villa fourth and the extra CL slot disappears.
Projected points from the above: 3
Projected finishing points: 57
BRIGHTON
Brighton just lost their first game in several weeks but have Wolves next, a trip to Elland road, and a final day home game to Man Utd. Honestly, it’s the seagulls against three teams whose stakes are very, very low right now (although Leeds notoriously take no quarter at home regardless). Their goal difference is stronger than Bournemouth’s, but to project 3 wins here would be insane based on current United form.
- Home to Wolves Likely Win
- Away to Leeds Possible Win
- Home to United Possible Win
Projected points from the above : 5-7
Projected finishing points: 55.57, And something tells me it’ll be Leeds that ruin our season.
LAY IT ALL OUT FOR ME JIM
Alright then, nuts on the table time. My prediction is that yes, Liverpool hold fourth, Villa hold fifth (and take the Europa), and sixth place goes to Bournemouth by a hair ahead of Brentford and Brighton both a single point below them. Quite a fun thing to have to say, given my (ahem) somewhat inaccurate predictions at the start of the Cherries’ season.
On with the show!
Jimi Kavanagh, May 2026
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